NCAA Tournament Title Game Preview
The most unpredictable NCAA Tournament in the event’s history comes to a close on Monday night at Reliant Stadium when Butler tips off with Connecticut.
The Bulldogs are simply the team that refuses to lose. Nearly one year to the day after it nearly stunned Duke in the national championship game, Butler is back for an improbable chance at a national title. The Bulldogs turned away fellow mid-major underdog VCU 70-62 in the Final Four on Saturday night in what was their most lopsided win of the Big Dance.
The Huskies are one of college basketball’s elite programs, and while everyone outside their home state is rooting against them, they’re a resilient bunch in their own right. On the heels of an impressive run that saw it win the Big East Tournament with five wins in five days, UConn is back in the national championship game for the first time since cutting down the nets in 2004 after nipping Kentucky 56-55 on Saturday night.
No. 8 Butler vs. No. 3 Connecticut (9:23 PM ET, CBS)
The Huskies (31-9 SU, 22-12 ATS) opened as 4-point favorites against the Bulldogs (28-9 SU, 20-13-2 ATS) following the national semifinals, but early action on the underdogs forced oddsmakers to adjust.
Connecticut is currently giving 3.5 points to Butler, while a 128.5-point total is on the board after the number was released at 129.5. Looks like bettors – at least initially – like the Bulldogs and the ‘under’.
Both choices are rooted in solid empirical evidence. Butler has covered the spread in all of its March Madness victories, including as 3.5-point chalk against Virginia Commonwealth. The Bulldogs had no easy path to Houston, either: After slipping past No. 9 Old Dominion in the Southeast Region second round, Butler cashed for backers against No. 1 Pittsburgh, No. 4 Wisconsin, and No. 2 Florida.
Overall, the Bulldogs have won 14 straight games SU (10-3-1 ATS) since sitting at 14-9 SU midway through the Horizon League schedule, and are 3-7 O/U in their last 10 Tourney matchups.
The Huskies are faves for a reason, however. UConn upset Kentucky as 2.5-point underdogs on Saturday night to improve to 9-1 against the number in its last 10 games dating back to the beginning of the Big East Tourney.
Butler won’t be an easy out, but there’s no hotter team than Connecticut now that VCU is out of the Madness. The Huskies had an easier road to the Final Four in winning the West Region than did the Bulldogs, but that has as much to do with higher seeding than anything else.
If the semifinal games showed bettors anything it’s that points should be at a premium on Monday night. Butler prefers a slower pace, and UConn is comfortable in that role, too. Kemba Walker (18 points, seven assists, and six rebounds against the Wildcats) gets the mainstream praise, but the Huskies have gone on their run because of improved play on the defensive end.
Connecticut shut down the talented Kentucky attack on Saturday night and that bodes well for its backers against Butler. The Bulldogs should be able to stick with the Huskies – meaning anything is possible down the stretch – but if UConn’s performance against Kentucky is a precursor, it should do just enough to cover the spread and win the national title on Monday night.
Both schools have dominated on neutral courts this season. Butler is 9-1 SU on a neutral site – with its only loss coming in Newark against then-No. 1 Duke – while Connecticut is a national-best 13-0 SU in a neutral setting this season. Advantage, Huskies.
If the Bulldogs shock the world and win the national title on Monday night, it’s because Shelvin Mack is the best player on the floor – no easy task with Walker set to run the show for UConn. Mack led Butler with 24 points in its win over VCU in the semis.
